4/9/2008 1:44:00 PM Conservationist Erickson states population is 'hanging on a thread' with current oil consumption
By Gretchen Mensink Lovejoy
"Here comes the sun, little darlin', here comes the sun, it's all right now...here comes the sun..."
According to Rochester resident Norm Erickson, the sun might be one of our energy saviors. It's free, doesn't come in a tanker from the Middle East, shines nearly every day, and its solar energy can be stored underground during the spring and summer for winter heating use.
"There's no reason why you can't store energy year-round in the ground for winter use," said the IBM retiree who spoke to the Spring Valley Kiwanis Club about "peak oil," or the declining supply of oil and the rising demand for it coming together at once.
"Peak oil is not about running out of oil. It is about the maximum point in the oil production flow that occurs when about half of the producible reserves have been extracted. The last half is harder, slower and more expensive to produce because oil companies go after the cheap and easy oil reserves first."
Erickson presented the "very real possibility" that America could soon be competing for $8-a-gallon gasoline due to eventual exhaustion of cheap oil supplies and growing world population. He first showed a video entitled "World Population" that illustrated how the world's human inhabitants have reproduced beyond the planet's support capabilities.
"At the time of Christ, there were fewer than half a billion people on Earth," he stated.
"We're now approaching 7 billion, and at the present rate of growth, there might be a shortage of food. Not much happened in human population growth until we started digging coal, smelting steel and building engines. Industrialized nations like the United States and most of those in Europe are most vulnerable to energy decline and descent. We certainly don't think often how integral oil is to the things of modern life - we're all dependent on cheap energy. We have an energy policy of cheap food and cheap energy."
According to Erickson, most oil discovered since the invention of the engine has been consumed since 1957.
"United States oil discovery peaked in 1930, and the United States has been in a long-term decline that began in 1970 - global discoveries of conventional crude oil, oil that's easy to produce and refine into fuels, peaked in 1964. In the 1970s, we imported 37 percent of our oil. Today, we import 67 percent. We're hanging on a thread, people."
He continued, "There's no reversing it. We may find more oil off the Gulf of Mexico or near Santa Barbara, but that's not going to change the size of the fields and reservoir rock in decline. There are 94 fields on Earth, and of those, 64 have peaked. Since 1980, we've used more oil each year than we've found. We're now counting non-conventional oil sources in our oil supply - tar sands, which take a long time to extract the oil from the sand - and as the quality of the oil goes down, there's more energy invested to get it out of the ground."
Global oil usage is estimated at 86 million 42-gallon barrels a day - factoring in China and India's growing thirst and a daily 4 to 5 percent decrease in conventional oil production - and "nearly 4 million barrels a day of new production has to be brought online every year, just to stay even."
Renewable energy sources are not yet proven reliable enough to warrant conversion from dependable oil and gasoline.
"To make up for the use of 1 cubic mile of oil used each year, it would take 32,850 1.6 mega-watt wind turbines put up every year for 50 years to get that mile of oil. Wind turbines don't solve the transportation problem, and the majority of lithium used in batteries placed in rechargeable vehicles comes from China. It would take 91,250,000 solar panels installed each year for 50 years to replace that cubic mile of oil used in one year. Renewables solve only part of the problem. Ethanol is a dead end because the problem is so big."
The hazelnut grower cited the tiny nuts as one possible renewable heating energy source because the nuts have 65 percent oil content - 30 percent more than soybeans. Still, he shone a light on bleak, cold winters in Minnesota if nothing is done to slow oil consumption.
"What does this mean to Minnesotans? It's not good news. We should be talking conservation instead of 'peak oil.'"
Kiwanis member Jeff Thauwald posed the question, "What would we be able to use to provide energy through the winter?" to which Erickson replied, "Wind and coal, but we're still shipping more coal year after year, and the heating value of the coal is falling. The best coal is gone, and what's left is not going to keep us afloat." He added, "Food supplies and transportation - airlines especially - are going to suffer. There is no silver bullet. We're all going to have to contribute, or we'll all suffer. But solar energy is one of the biggest unexplored energy sources."
"Do you see us going back to the way we lived in the '50s, '40s, '30s or 1900s?" asked Rita Hartert.
"You're going in the right direction," answered Erickson. He predicts that in order to compensate for rising fuel costs, the family home will become smaller, people will carpool, grow vegetables in their yards and shop locally. "Those apples from New Zealand...you won't be eating those."
For more information, log onto www.peakoil.net, www.postcarbon.org, www.transitiontowns.org, www.energybulletin.net, www.theoildrum.com, and www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.com (a site he advised readers to "take an aspirin first" before visiting), or contact Norm Erickson at norme2@charter.net.
Reader Comments
Posted: Thursday, April 10, 2008
Article comment by:
Clifford J. Wirth
We are running out of oil completely by 2070, and as soon as we hit Peak Oil, probably this year, we go into permanently worsening economic depression. See: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html
Posted: Thursday, April 10, 2008
Article comment by:
Norm Erickson
Most of the peak oil article is right on, but I'd like to offer a couple of important clarifications:
1. I was referring to countries that have peaked, not oil fields. There are thousand of oil fields around the world.
2. Hazelnuts contain about 60% oil, triple that of soybeans, and hazel are low-input perennial woody plants.
Hazelnuts are already in bloom as our last winter weather blows through! Plant now, harvest for generations. We will run our farm machinery with hazelnut biodiesel produced on the farm.
Thanks to Gretchen for her public service article. Communities need to act to protect themselves from food and fuel shortages.
Posted: Thursday, April 10, 2008
Article comment by:
Michael Noble
Thanks for running the story on peak oil.
Most people are still not aware how dramatically our lives will be affected when global production of oil begins to steadily and irreversibly decline, just at the same time that emerging economies like India and China are exploding.
The question is to what degree can efficiency, conservation, electricity and renewable fuels like from Norm's hazelnuts ---all combined together---substitute for oil. Can they grow at the rate that oil declines?
Norm Erickson was the first to peruade our organization to write about it, and this year saw hearings at the legislature on the topic for the first time. Norm Erickson was ahead of his time on this.
Michael Noble
www.fresh-energy.org
